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Match date: Friday, 6 November 2020
Football - England Premier League
Venue: Amex Stadium

Nice and easy... (Not so much) 2-1 win for Mourinho's men against Brighton. I can't get my head around the Brighton goal! How did the referee make that mistake with VAR! Unreal, luckily for us, he is not going to make any mistakes in this weekend games as he has been left out! LOL! Anyway, it is always nice to start the month with a winner. Hopefully, I can continue that trend on my second pick, I have to admit I am a little nervous, but it has value in my eyes.


Preview:


Brighton will host Burnley in the first game of the Premier League fixture. Both teams have been underwhelming and will want to get the win, I have read people calling it a "6 point game" for relegation, but I would not rush it yet. The hosts sit at 16th with 5 points in 7 games, while the visitors in 20th with just 1 point in 6 games.


If we take a look at Brighton's underlying numbers, they have been impressive at the start of the season, generating 1.44, 1.88, 2.98, and 1.17 expected goals (xg). These numbers are against the bottom sides, right? No, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man. Utd, and Everton! However, they have regressed after the international break. They have produced 1.09, .55, and just .32 in their last match. The most shocking being against West Brom (.55 xg). However, on the bright side, their defensive process has been solid with just 5.69 expected goals against from open play. This when you consider their tough schedule is remarkable playing four top 6 teams so far.


Meanwhile, the visitors have been less impressive than Brighton. They have just one point in six games, but their underlying numbers suggest they have been unlucky so far (Their expected points are 6.65). Burnley has characterized by playing tight affairs and low scoring games or at least in terms of expected goals. They have gone 3 games over 2.5 and 3 games under. But they have never produced more than 3 expected goals in a match, their first one against Leicester is the closest one with a 2.51xg game (.99 vs 1.52) and the match had 6! (4-2). In their last match, Chelsea scored 3 by themselves, but they only produced 1.23 xg, showing a clinical performance. Dyche's men have struggled to score producing .79 xg per game! Those are mediocre numbers. On the defensive side, they are allowing 1.06 xg per game, which is the best in the league!


Conclusion:


I think both teams will see this as a winnable game and an opportunity to get points on the board. They will not want to lose the game as that will hinder the team. Also, both teams are lacking confidence and are struggling to create quality chances and scoring goals, I do not think that will change today. I think you can all see where I am going... this match has all the ingredients to go UNDER 2.5 goals.  This probably ends in a draw, as both teams will focus on not losing and not making any dumb mistakes. But, I chose under 2.5. Good Luck! Hope you enjoyed the long preview!

Brighton vs Burnley betting tips

Under 2.5 goals (Asian Line)

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